At a Glance
- Elsa is moving the Southeast after its Florida landfall.
- It will bring heavy rain, gusty winds and a few tornadoes to the Southeast through Thursday.
- Elsa will then quickly sweep through the Northeast Friday.
Elsa is tracking through the Southeast U.S. after its Florida landfall, and will spread heavy rain, gusty winds and the threat of a few tornadoes up the East Coast through Friday. Tropical storm warnings extend north to portions of New England.
Happening Now
Elsa continues to track across the Southeast after it made landfall late Wednesday morning near Steinhatchee, Florida, about 75 miles southeast of Tallahassee, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical storm warnings extend from Georgia to Massachusetts. Tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph) will spread through this region late this week. This includes Southeast Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay and the southern Delmarva Peninsula.
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Forecast Path and Intensity
Elsa remains a tropical storm and could strengthen some as it moves near the East Coast.
Elsa will track through the Southeast from South Carolina to southeast Virginia through Thursday night, then quickly through the Northeast on Friday.
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Forecast Impacts
In general, most of Elsa’s impacts – rain, wind, coastal flooding/surge, tornado threats – should occur along and to the east and south of the track of Elsa’s center.
Rainfall
Elsa is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall amounts on the eastern U.S, according to NOAA:
-Portions of South Carolina are forecast to see 3 to 5 inches of rain, with locally up to 8 inches possible.
-Central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia and from the mid-Atlantic into New England might see 2 to 4 inches of rain, with locally up to 6 inches possible.
All of these areas could see at least localized flash flooding from Elsa’s heavy rainfall.
Wind
Tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph) will spread into coastal South Carolina Thursday morning. The strongest gusts will occur in thunderstorms or heavier bands of rain near the coast.
These stronger wind gusts could break some tree limbs, down trees and cause at least scattered power outages.
Some tropical storm force winds are possible in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states Thursday night and Friday, particularly near the coast.
Tornadoes
The chance of an isolated tornado threat could spread into the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia on Thursday. The threat for a tornado or two may continue into Thursday night into Friday across parts of the mid-Atlantic to southern New England.
Elsa Recap
Tropical Depression Five formed last Wednesday night while it was about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands.
The system then became Tropical Storm Elsa six hours later on July 1, the earliest forming fifth named Atlantic storm on record in the satellite era (since 1966). The old record was held by Edouard, which developed a year ago on the evening of July 5.
Elsa also formed unusually far south and east for so early in the hurricane season, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist, Phil Klotzbach.
The following morning, Elsa became the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on July 2, almost six weeks earlier than the average date of the season’s first Atlantic hurricane.
Elsa brought hurricane force gusts to Barbados and St. Lucia Friday morning. A sustained wind of 74 mph and gust of 86 mph was measured on Barbados early Friday. A wind gust of 79 mph was reported in St. Lucia.
More than 5 inches of rain had fallen in at least one location in Jamaica as of late Sunday morning.
The tropical storm made landfall around 2 p.m. EDT Monday in Ciénaga de Zapata National Park, about 80 miles southeast of Havana along the Caribbean coast of western Cuba’s Matanzas Province. Maximum sustained winds at the time were 60 mph.
Wind gusts to 70 mph have been clocked amid the heavy rain in Key West and flooding has been reported in the Lower Keys.
Elsa briefly became a hurricane again Tuesday evening, but then weakened back to tropical storm early Wednesday morning.
Dry air and wind shear helped erode away the more well-organized core that it briefly developed near its circulation center Tuesday.
Winds gusted to 71 mph in Horseshoe Beach, midway between Steinhatchee and Cedar Key along Florida’s Big Bend, as Elsa’s center moved ashore.
Gusts of 55 to 60 mph were clocked at Cedar Key Wednesday morning with driving rain. A storm surge of 2.7 feet was recorded at Cedar Key around the midday high tide shortly after Elsa’s landfall.
Trees were downed in some areas, including across Interstate 10 in Baker County, Florida, and Interstate 75 in Columbia County near Lake City, and in Dowling Park, where 20 to 30 trees were uprooted or snapped.
A brief EF0 tornado downed a tree onto a home in Columbia, Florida. Later in the afternoon, a tornado tore through the south side of Jacksonville, downing trees and power lines.
Flooding rain also soaked parts of the Sunshine State and south Georgia.
Water approached a few homes in Steinhatchee, according to Taylor County emergency management.
Some roads were flooded in parts of Charlotte, Lee, Manatee and Sarasota Counties where stalled bands of rain had set up. Rainfall totals up to 11 inches were reported in Punta Gorda, according to the National Weather Service.
In Lowndes County, Georgia, a few dirt roads were reportedly flooded and washed out, according to local emergency management.
The name Elsa is new to the list of rotating names being used this season. This year’s list was last used in 2015, but Erika was the “E” storm that year.
Erika was retired after it caused deadly and destructive flooding in the Caribbean Island of Dominica. Elsa replaced it.
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