The clock is ticking down on President TrumpDonald John TrumpDozens of protesters gathered outside home of Michigan elections chiefArizona legislature shuts down after Giuliani tests positive for coronavirusTrump election claims dominate Georgia Senate debateMOREs time in the White House, but he shows no sign of departing the political stage.
Speculation is growing louder that Trump will consider another presidential bid in 2024.Â
Whether he ultimately jumps into that race or not, the fact that he might do so has huge effects, complicating the electoral calculus for other contenders.
GOP strategist Dan Judy said that, regardless of Trumps final decision on 2024, there is no question that he is going to keep his name out there, and try in some shape or form to remain the head of the Republican Party and the center of attention.
Trump has fanned rumors about 2024 even as he continues to insist, falsely, that he won this years election.Â
Last week, Trump reportedly told an audience at a Christmas party in the White House that he was trying to do another four years beginning now, but if that failed, Ill see you in four years.
Last month, Politico quoted Sen. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerThe Hill’s 12:30 Report Presented by Capital One Pressure builds as UK approves COVID-19 vaccineRepublican frustration builds over Cabinet picksRepublicans ready to become deficit hawks again under a President BidenMORE (R-N.D.) saying that Trump told him, If this doesnt work out, Ill just run again in four years.
And on Wednesday, NPR reported that Trump is seriously considering a 2024 bid.
A second, non-consecutive Trump presidential term would be one of the most unlikely twists yet in a tumultuous political journey. Only one president in American history has pulled off such a feat: President Grover Cleveland lost his 1888 re-election bid but came back to win in 1892.
Trump is hardly likely to be put off by a scarcity of historical precedents, given how unlikely his rise to the presidency was in the first place.
Its easy to make a case as to why Trump would have a strong shot at the 2024 GOP nomination, at least.
He received more than 74 million votes this year. Though he was defeated handily by President-elect Biden in the popular vote Bidens tally now stands at more than 81 million votes the decisive states were very close.Â
If Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona had gone the other way, the Electoral College vote would have been tied. Bidens margin of victory was less than one percentage point in all three of those states.
Trump is by far the most popular politician in the nation among Republican voters, even though he is deeply divisive with the electorate at large. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Dec. 2, 78 percent of Republican registered voters approved of Trumps job performance.Â
His ability to command the loyalty and attention of his grassroots supporters is unparalleled within the GOP. His capacity to get them to open their wallets is startling too. The New York Times reported on Dec. 3 that Trump had raised over $200 million since his election loss, about 75 percent of which can be used by his newly-formed political action committee.
Look how much money theyve raised already, said Sam Nunberg, an advisor who worked on the early stages of Trumps 2016 campaign.
Nunberg added, regarding the GOP 2024 primary, I think itd be a very, very difficult proposition to beat him. Youll have others that are going to claim they dont care. But, I mean, whos going to beat him Nikki HaleyNimrata (Nikki) HaleyFour reasons Donald Trump will likely become a spent forceCivil war between MAGA, GOP establishment could hand Dems total controlBiden’s foreign policy team has a surprising lack of diversity MORE?
The former South Carolina governor is one of the names most often cited as a 2020 contender, even as some in Trumps orbit disparage her as ill-suited to carrying forward his populist mantle.
A potential Trump candidacy is a headache for other potential candidates who might otherwise hope to win over his voters. Sens. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzFour reasons Donald Trump will likely become a spent forceCivil war between MAGA, GOP establishment could hand Dems total controlSenate GOP brushes off long-shot attempt to fight Biden winMORE (R-Texas) and Josh HawleyJoshua (Josh) David HawleyFour reasons Donald Trump will likely become a spent forceCivil war between MAGA, GOP establishment could hand Dems total controlSenate GOP brushes off long-shot attempt to fight Biden winMORE (R-Mo.), as well as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantisRon DeSantisCivil war between MAGA, GOP establishment could hand Dems total controlRomney blasts Trump lack of leadership during pandemic: ‘It’s a great human tragedy’ Florida officials were asked to avoid public statements on coronavirus before election: reportMORE (R), all broadly fit that description.
There is plenty of skepticism about a Trump comeback in Republican circles too, however.
One question that resurfaces again and again is whether Trump really has the appetite to put himself through another election campaign. He will be 78 on Election Day 2024. Many people see the gossip about a run as a publicity gambit, meant to maintain Trumps relevance and media profile.Â
Then there is the debate about whether Trumps dominance over the party will fade with time.Â
The second he becomes an ex-president, how much attention is he going to get compared to what he does now? said Doug Heye, a former communications director for the Republican National Committee. In February, he cant veto a bill or fire anybody at the Department of Justice. So when he tweets something, how much attention does that get?
Another Republican strategist, Liz Mair, said she was incredulous at the thought of the party choosing Trump as its standard-bearer again in 2024. Mair acknowledged that Trump still had his loyal base, but she also questioned the degree to which he could expand beyond it.
He has a very high floor and a very low ceiling thats the challenge, she said.Â
She also had a starker observation.Â
Republicans generally arent big fans of losers. They want to move on, she said.
Whether they want to move on from Trump, however, is a much more complicated question.Â
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage, primarily focused on Donald Trumps presidency.
