Scottish Labour has found itself trapped in a no-win dilemma over Brexit after it decided to back a Scottish National party motion against the Brexit deal in Holyrood later on Wednesday – in direct contradiction to Keir Starmers stance at Westminster.
To the consternation of his internal critics, Richard Leonard, the partys Scottish leader, announced on Tuesday the party would vote with the SNP to reject the deal by arguing it would cause unjustified economic damage in Scotland.
To the glee of its opponents, this puts the Scottish party on a collision course with Starmer, who has insisted Labour has to back the deal because now it is signed, Westminster faces a binary choice of either backing it or effectively endorsing a no-deal.
Severin Carrell (@severincarrell)NEW: @scottishlabour is breaking ranks with @Keir_Starmer in startling fashion, by voting against @GOVUK#Brexit deal in #Holyrood tomorrow – despite Starmer’s demand Labour back the deal at Westminster
December 29, 2020
Rejecting counter arguments Labour should abstain, Starmer told the Guardian on Tuesday: If you vote against it, you are voting for no deal. Thats the SNPs inexplicable position. The consequence of that, if they succeed, will be no deal.
The implication of Starmers position is Scottish Labour must also be backing a no deal if it votes with the SNP in Holyrood. Ian Murray, Scottish Labours only MP and the partys shadow Scottish secretary, had repeatedly supported Starmers analysis.
Ian Murray MP (@IanMurrayMP)SNP MPs to vote no deal. This isnt a principled vote against Brexit its a vote for no deal. Sits nicely alongside spending just £90k in the EU ref & forcing GE2019 rather than staying with peoples vote. Its in Scotlands interests to have a deal v no deal. U used to agree. https://t.co/s1UCwNH2e4
December 27, 2020
After a tense Holyrood Labour group meeting, the party is expected to publish a revised position later today, claiming their rejection of the deal is based on the Tory governments failure to consult the devolved nations. It will also claim they empathise with Starmers dilemma, arguing he has been put in an invidious position.
With Labour trailing at third in polling for Mays crucial Holyrood elections, Leonard clearly hopes voting against the deal will protect Labour against SNP attacks it backs Brexit. Given Scotlands strongly Europhile sentiments, that attack line could harm Labour.
As things stand, the SNPs motion at Holyrood to reject the deal will certainly win support from the Scottish Greens, so will pass narrowly without Labours support. The Tories will vote against the SNP, as will the Lib Dems.
Even so, Labours stance could have significant repercussions for the party in May: its effect is to damage Starmer at a time when Labour unity is essential, and fuel allegations Labour is in disarray. In turn, that increases the SNPs chances of winning a majority at Holyrood, and thus of holding a second independence referendum.
